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Evaluation Review
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Evaluating Correctional Programs

Models of Criminal Recidivism and an Illustration of Their Use

Peter Schmidt

Michigan State University

Ann D. Witte

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

In this article, we develop a model of the length of time until recidivism, and estimate it on a sample of releasees from the North Carolina prison system. Evidence of the model's predictive accuracy is presented. The model is then used to evaluate a correctional program by comparing the actual time until recidivism of program participants to that predicted by the model. The program appears to be effective only in the very short run.

Evaluation Review, Vol. 4, No. 5, 585-600 (1980)
DOI: 10.1177/0193841X8000400502
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