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Evaluation Review
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Patterns of Crime and Drug Use Trajectories in Relation to Treatment Initiation and 5-Year Outcomes

An Application of Growth Mixture Modeling Across Three Data Sets

Michael Prendergast

University of California, Los Angeles

David Huang

University of California, Los Angeles

Yih-Ing Hser

University of California, Los Angeles

Drug abusers vary considerably in their drug use and criminal behavior over time, and these trajectories are likely to influence drug treatment participation and treatment outcomes. Drawing on longitudinal natural history data from three samples of adult male drug users, we identify four groups with distinctive drug use and crime trajectories during the 5 years prior to their first treatment episode. The groups' characteristics of initial treatment are compared. The trajectory groups are then included in Poisson growth curve models to predict drug use, incarceration, and employment during the 5 years following first treatment. Findings indicate that posttreatment drug use decreased and posttreatment employment increased. There was little change in posttreatment incarceration. Posttreatment trajectories for drug use, incarceration, and employment were significantly different across the four trajectory groups.

Key Words: drug use trajectories • crime trajectories • treatment • growth curve models • longitudinal analysis

Evaluation Review, Vol. 32, No. 1, 59-82 (2008)
DOI: 10.1177/0193841X07308082
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