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Evaluation Review
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Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Massachusetts Workforce Development System Using No-Shows as a Nonexperimental Comparison Group

Steven Raphael

Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley

Michael A. Stoll

School of Public Policy and Social Research, University of California, Los Angeles

This article examines the effect of the Massachusetts workforce development system on the earnings of disadvantaged adults using nonexperimental data from the late 1990s. The authors construct a comparison sample for program participants using individuals who apply for and are offered services yet do not participate in a training program. They present a series of difference-in-difference estimates that make several alternative efforts to correct for selectivity bias, including econometric models that regression adjust for observable characteristics and fixed-effect models that adjust for time-invariant person effects. They also employ probabilistic matching techniques to more finely align the treatment and comparison samples. On average, program participants experienced 20% increases in annual earnings 1 year postintervention and 25% increases after 2 years. The authors uncover considerable heterogeneity in these effects, suggesting that the most difficult to serve and the most job ready benefit the least.

Key Words: job training • nonexperimental evaluation • propensity score

Evaluation Review, Vol. 30, No. 4, 379-429 (2006)
DOI: 10.1177/0193841X05282268
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