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Evaluation Review
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A Network Flow Model for Forecasting and Evaluating Criminal Displacement

Stuart Jay Deutsch

Georgia Institute of Technology School of Industrial and Systems Engineering

John J. Jarvis

Georgia Institute of Technology School of Industrial and Systems Engineering

R. Gary Parker

Georgia Institute of Technology School of Industrial and Systems Engineering

In this article, the characteristics of crime patterns in geographic areas over time are described by a network flow model. A method forforecastingfuture crime patterns with the network model is discussed along with procedures for evaluating future displacement by component randomization. An illustrative example of the model building and output analysis from actual arrest data is presented.

Evaluation Review, Vol. 3, No. 2, 219-235 (1979)
DOI: 10.1177/0193841X7900300203
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