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Evaluation Review
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Probabilistic Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of HIV Prevention

Comparing a Bayesian Approach With Traditional Deterministic Sensitivity Analysis

Ana P. Johnson-Masotti

Medical College of Wisconsin

Purushottam W. Laud

Medical College of Wisconsin

Raymond G. Hoffmann

Medical College of Wisconsin

Matthew J. Hayat

Medical College of Wisconsin

Steven D. Pinkerton

Medical College of Wisconsin

In cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is used to measure economic efficiency of a new intervention, relative to an existing one. However, costs and effects are seldom known with certainty. Uncertainty arises from two main sources: uncertainty regarding correct values of intervention-related parameters and uncertainty associated with sampling variation. Recently, attention has focused on Bayesian techniques for quantifying uncertainty. We computed the Bayesian-based 95% credible interval estimates of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of several related HIV prevention interventions and compared these results with univariate sensitivity analyses. The conclusions were comparable, even though the probabilistic technique provided additional information.

Evaluation Review, Vol. 25, No. 4, 474-502 (2001)
DOI: 10.1177/0193841X0102500404
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 Med Decis MakingHome page
A. P. Johnson-Masotti, P. W. Laud, R. G. Hoffmann, M. J. Hayat, and S. D. Pinkerton
A Bayesian Approach to Net Health Benefits: An Illustration and Application to Modeling HIV Prevention
Med Decis Making, November 1, 2004; 24(6): 634 - 653.
[Abstract] [PDF]