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Logistic Versus Hazards Regression Analyses in Evaluation Research

An Exposition and Application to the North Carolina Court Counselors' Intensive Protective Supervision Project

Duke University

Patricia L. McCall

North Carolina State University

Karen F. Parker

North Carolina State University

This article examines and compares the advantages of employing logistic and hazards regression techniques in assessing both the overall impact of a treatment program and the extent to which the impact varies among different client subgroups. Data gathered from the North Carolina Court Counselors' Intensive Protective Supervision Project provides a context for the application of these statistical techniques to assess this program's effectiveness. This experimental project was designed topnovide intensive supervision for status offenders who are placed under the protective supervision of the juvenile courts in North Carolina. It is found that, although intensive supervision had the desired impact of reducing the probability of delinquent offenses during the early (first year and a half) phase of the project, this effect deteriorated over the full three and a half years of the experiment. In addition, the hazards regression analysis shows that youths under intensive supervtsion failed (recidivated with status or delinquent offenses) at a more rapid rate than those under regular supervision. Implications are drawn for the management and effectiveness of intensive supervision programs.

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