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Evaluation Review
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An Alternative Model of the Reproductive Rate of Hiv Infection

Formulation, Evaluation, and Implications for Risk Reduction Interventions

Steven D. Pinkerton

University of California, Los Angeles

Paul R. Abramson

University of California, Los Angeles

The future course of the HIVlAIDS epidemic depends on the ratio of secondary to primary infections early in the epidemic. If this ratio, here called the reproductive rate of infection, exceeds unity then the epidemic can be expected to flourish ; otherwise it will eventually abate. Estimates of the reproductive rate of HIV infection, obtained via a Bernoulli process model of the sexual transmission of HIV, indicate that decreasing the infectivity of the virus, through the consistent use of condoms, for example, is more effective at reducing the reproductive rate of infection than is limiting the number of sexual partners, regardless of the initial prevalence of HIV infection in the population under consideration.

Evaluation Review, Vol. 18, No. 4, 371-388 (1994)
DOI: 10.1177/0193841X9401800401


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This article has been cited by other articles:


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S. D. Pinkerton, D. R. Holtgrave, L. C. Leviton, D. A. Wagstaff, and P. R. Abramson
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Eval RevHome page
S. D. Pinkerton and P. R. Abramson
Implications of Increased Infectivity in Early-Stage HIV Infection: Application of a Bernoulli-Process Model of HIV Transmission
Eval Rev, October 1, 1996; 20(5): 516 - 540.
[Abstract] [PDF]