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Evaluation Review, Vol. 18, No. 2, 208-226 (1994)
DOI: 10.1177/0193841X9401800204

Improving Program Targeting Through Simulation

Richard C. Gardiner

New York State Department of Health

Statistical identification of employees with unusual sick leave usage patterns can result in false positive identifications. Such misidentifications weaken confidence in detection methods and may increase reluctance of supervisors to pursue reported unusual sick leave use. A computer simulation model was used to evaluate alternate methods and parameters of unusual sick leave detection. Results of the simulation were used to refine identification parameters and to modify supervisory follow-up procedures.


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