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Estimating Local Child Abuse

University of Maryland

Three conceptual approaches to estimating local child abuse rates using conventional data available at the local level are discussed and evaluated. The first approach assumes that local abuse rates can be approximated by the national abuse rates. The second approach assumes that known abuse rates must be decomposed into rates applicable to sub-groups in the population, then used to estimate local levels of abuse. The third approach assumes that social and demographic variations across counties must be accounted for before adequate estimates can be obtained The National Incidence Study of Child Abuse and Neglect data set is used to illustrate the alternative methods. The methods are then applied to obtain estimates of child abuse cases in a single county outside of the sample. The conclusion is that estimates of actual abuse cases far exceed the number of reported cases regardless of the method employed

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