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An Analysis of the Sensitivity of Quasi-Experimental Net Impact Estimates of Ceta Programs

SRI International

Terry R. Johnson

Battelle

Richard W. West

SRI International

This article examines the sensitivity of CETA net impact estimates to alternative methodological procedures to reconcile the diverse findings from various CETA studies that are based on the same basic data sets. Our results indicate that estimated net impacts are quite sensitive to whether individuals without recent labor market attachment are included in the comparison group and to how close to the date of enrollment one measures preprogram earnings. Also, impact estimates are quite sensitive to the choice of the estimation models used and to assumptions about the period in which the decision to enroll in CETA is made. However, net impact estimates are robust to the matching technique used. Our results indicate that the wide diversity of CETA net impact estimates reported in the literature can be explained by differences in the methodological procedures used.

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