This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via Google Scholar Citing Articles via Scopus Google Scholar Articles by Tonn, B. Articles by Hirst, E. Search for Related Content PubMed Articles by Tonn, B. Articles by Hirst, E. Social Bookmarking                         What's this?

Lowering the Costs of Program Evaluation

Energy Conservation Programs in the Pacific Northwest

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Eric Hirst

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

During this period of reductions in government social programs, there is great value in developing program evaluation methods that are low cost and timely. This article explores the use of past evaluation data to develop statistical models useful in predicting future program performance. Model data requirements are much lower than those of evaluations, and models can yield policy results much more quickly. The modeling approach is used to develop a low-cost monitoring scheme for the Bonneville Power Administration Residential Weatherization Program. Three years of evaluation data (1981, 1982, and 1983) were utilized. The results suggest that the modeling approach is most effective when program characteristics and actors, and the external environment are stable over time. In our application, modeling results changed between 1982 and 1983. The article concludes with a discussion about the defensibility ofpredictions yielded by streamlined evaluations.

Evaluation Review, Vol. 10, No. 3, 335-353 (1986)
DOI: 10.1177/0193841X8601000305


CiteULike    Complore    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    Twitter    What's this?